Question

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction64% (60% - 72%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 64%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closed:

Sep 30, 2021

Scheduled resolution:

Sep 30, 2022

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How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

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