Question

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?

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Community Prediction64% (60% - 72%)

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community: 64%

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SimonM

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How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

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Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Metaculus

2021 Leaderboard

A new Google AI-powered weather model could be key to the future of your forecast – but there’s a catch

CNN•Dec 13, 2024

Super Bowl Predictions & Picks 2025: Expert Picks and Analysis

•Dec 13, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

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Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?

Make a Prediction

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

Metaculus meta questions

Comments

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

Metaculus meta questions

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

Metaculus meta questions

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

Metaculus meta questions