Question

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?

Resolved :Yes70%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction70% (66% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

46.3

Community Peer Score

4.9

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closes:

Sep 30, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2024

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Convergence of random variables

Data analysis

Statistics

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Forbes•Jan 27, 2025

Is The Surge In Bullish Sentiment Positive For Stocks?

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Will U.S. Stocks Experience Mean Reversion Or A Gambler’s Fallacy?

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

72%

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closes:

Sep 30, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2024

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Convergence of random variables

Data analysis

Statistics

How Psychology Will Likely Drive The Trading Of Options In 2025

Forbes•Jan 27, 2025

Is The Surge In Bullish Sentiment Positive For Stocks?

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Will U.S. Stocks Experience Mean Reversion Or A Gambler’s Fallacy?

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

72%

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%