Question

Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction78% (74% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 78%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closed:

Sep 30, 2021

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2024

Metaculus

2021 Leaderboard

Statistics

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How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

75%

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closed:

Sep 30, 2021

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 30, 2024

Metaculus

2021 Leaderboard

Statistics

Is The Surge In Bullish Sentiment Positive For Stocks?

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Will U.S. Stocks Experience Mean Reversion Or A Gambler’s Fallacy?

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

'January Barometer' points to 2025 gains after volatile but up month

CNBC•Jan 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

75%