Question

When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?

Resolved :Jan 19, 20242022-11-10

18 comments18

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction2022-11-10 (2022-05-29 - 2023-07-31)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01-01

...

2022-05-29 15:21

2022-11-10 02:49

2023-07-31 21:32

0.5%

What was the final result?Jan 19, 2024

Community Baseline Score

16.0

Community Peer Score

26.5

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

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Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

NASA’s 2 stuck astronauts face more time in space with return delayed until at least late March

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

NASA astronauts stuck in space not set to return to Earth until at least late March

New York Post•Dec 18, 2024

NASA Snaps Dusty Mars InSight Lander ‘Farewell’ Image From Orbit

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?

89%

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

2040-12-30

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

773

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

NASA’s 2 stuck astronauts face more time in space with return delayed until at least late March

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

NASA astronauts stuck in space not set to return to Earth until at least late March

New York Post•Dec 18, 2024

NASA Snaps Dusty Mars InSight Lander ‘Farewell’ Image From Orbit

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?

89%

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

2040-12-30

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

773

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?

Make a Prediction

Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

Comments

Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?

When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?