Question

Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?

Resolved :Yes99%

155 comments155

Total Forecasters286

Community Prediction99% (96% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-0.3

Community Peer Score

0.5

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Oct 3, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

In post-war Lebanon, Hezbollah grapples with new relationship to the state

Al Jazeera•Mar 3, 2025

‘The price was huge’: Hezbollah reeling as Lebanese ponder sacrifices of its war

Guardian•Mar 4, 2025

Nearly 30 Airstrikes Reported as Israel Launches Largest Attack on South Lebanon Since Ceasefire

AntiWar•Mar 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

7.5%

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

1.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Oct 3, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2030

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

In post-war Lebanon, Hezbollah grapples with new relationship to the state

Al Jazeera•Mar 3, 2025

‘The price was huge’: Hezbollah reeling as Lebanese ponder sacrifices of its war

Guardian•Mar 4, 2025

Nearly 30 Airstrikes Reported as Israel Launches Largest Attack on South Lebanon Since Ceasefire

AntiWar•Mar 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

7.5%

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

1.2%