Question

Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?

Resolved :Yes

155 comments155

Total Forecasters286

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-0.3

Community Peer Score

0.5

median 99.0%mean 94.6%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Israel pounds southern Beirut as Lebanon awaits ceasefire proposals

Al Jazeera•Nov 14, 2024

Israel’s maximalist demands unlikely to lead to ceasefire with Hezbollah

Al Jazeera•Nov 15, 2024

Daily Hezbollah strikes begin to dwindle as Israel closes in on cease-fire deal: officials

New York Post•Nov 15, 2024

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