Question

Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?

Resolved :Yes

155 comments155

Total Forecasters286

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-0.3

Community Peer Score

0.5

median 99.0%mean 94.6%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Hezbollah–Israel conflict

2006 Lebanon War

Israel Targets Hezbollah's Finances as Strikes Hit Beirut Suburbs

Newsweek•Oct 21, 2024

Israel's war with Iran-backed Hezbollah escalates as IDF bombs financial institutions across Lebanon

CBS•Oct 21, 2024

Hezbollah and Iran’s calculus as the conflict with Israel heats up

•Oct 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

13%

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

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