Question

How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?

Resolved :22.8k20.4k

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction20.4k (17.4k - 23.5k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>50k
community	17.44k	20.4k	23.51k	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	17.44k	—
median	20.4k	—
upper 75%	23.51k	—
Upper bound
>50k	0.4%	—

What was the final result?22.8k

Community Baseline Score

62.0

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 30, 2021

Closes:

Mar 1, 2022

Resolves:

Jul 7, 2022

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Global Terrorism Database

1 Dead, 4 Injured In Terrorist Attack In Israel

Daily Wire•Mar 4, 2025

Gabbard: Almost 100 Terror-Linked Migrants Released in 2024

Breitbart•Mar 6, 2025

Lone wolf attacks surge in the West as terrorism intensifies globally

FOX News•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2025?

22.6k

What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?

18.6k

What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?

1.93

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