Question

Will May Day protests turn violent?

Resolved :Yes

15 comments15

Total Forecasters92

Community Prediction70%

Make a Prediction

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

33.9

Community Peer Score

29.9

median 70.0%mean 67.2%

Authors:

max.wainwright

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

May Day

International Workers' Day

Haymarket affair

United States

Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

63%

Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

max.wainwright

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

May Day

International Workers' Day

Haymarket affair

United States

‘Democracy should not be monetised’: unions revolt against Chris Minns’ plan to ban protests based on cost

Guardian•Oct 8, 2024

Nearly a dozen police injured in fresh protests in Martinique

Associated Press•Oct 8, 2024

‘Street takeovers’ terrorize towns across US as former detective warns of deadly consequences

FOX News•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

63%