Question

Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?

Resolved :No

37 comments37

Total Forecasters166

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

91.1

Community Peer Score

6.0

median 1.0%mean 1.6%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Geopolitics

Brazil

2018 Brazilian general election

Jair Bolsonaro

Folha de S.Paulo

Supreme Federal Court

Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?

40%

Will President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026?

44.1%

Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Geopolitics

Brazil

2018 Brazilian general election

Jair Bolsonaro

Folha de S.Paulo

Supreme Federal Court

In Brazil, the US election is inspiring hard-right ‘Trump of the tropics’ supporters to ‘complete our mission’

CNN•Nov 11, 2024

Jair Bolsonaro Dons MAGA Hat for ‘Trump Dance’ to Celebrate Election Victory

Breitbart•Nov 13, 2024

Brazil authorities link bombing in the capital to extremist discourse

Associated Press•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?

40%

Will President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026?

44.1%