Question

What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction11.6

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

8.421

11.59

18.03

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?

2024-06-05

What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates?

11.5

Human-Level Language Models

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?

2024-06-05

What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates?

11.5