Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Resolved :Ambiguous2031-07-26
2
5
Total Forecasters5
Community Prediction2031-07-26 (2026-05-24 - 2037-06-29)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<2021-10-20
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-01-01
...
...
...
...
...
10.4%
2026-05-24 07:18
2031-07-26 16:28
2037-06-29 03:36
0.5%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Loebner Prize
Philosophy
Turing test

Comments

? comments