Question

How many hours a week will coders report using GPT-X Codex type tools in Robin Hanson's 2026 Twitter poll?

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction4.23 (1.45 - 10.6)

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	<0.01	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.7%	1.455	4.233	10.62
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.01	0.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.455	—
median	4.233	—
upper 75%	10.62	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Sep 24, 2021

Closed:

Mar 14, 2023

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2026

AI Progress Essay Contest

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Robin Hanson

Twitter

ChatGPT may not be as power-hungry as once assumed

TechCrunch•Feb 12, 2025

Sam Altman details the plan for OpenAI's GPT-5

Business Insider•Feb 13, 2025

AI Tools Are Saving a Consulting Firm's Leaders Six Hours per Week Each

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

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