Question

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction44.5% (25% - 53%)

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50%

community: 44.5%

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

China Intensifies Military Presence Near Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

China Intensifies Military Drills Around Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

66%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

China Intensifies Military Presence Near Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

China Intensifies Military Drills Around Taiwan

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

66%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

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Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Comments

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?