Question

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction44.5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 44.5%

median 44.5%mean 42.6%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

67.4%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

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China Issues Donald Trump a Warning Over Taiwan

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

67.4%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%