Question

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction4% (2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

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Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Abiy Ahmed

Tigray Region

Ethiopia

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CNN•Dec 24, 2024

How hopes for Myanmar's democracy faded and why leadership is needed (again)

NPR Online News•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

99%

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elections

Geopolitics

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Abiy Ahmed

Tigray Region

Ethiopia

Donald Trump May Not Have Justin Trudeau to Kick Around Anymore

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

The most - and least - surprising votes from a historic year of elections

CNN•Dec 24, 2024

How hopes for Myanmar's democracy faded and why leadership is needed (again)

NPR Online News•Dec 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?

99%

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

0.5%