Question

When will a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system be successfully returned to Earth?

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Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction2060-11

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2099-12

...

2050-03

2060-11

2072-03

7.2%

Authors:

Kostas

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Scheduled resolution:

When will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?

2054-05

If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?

15%

When will successful sample return missions occur for the following destinations?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

We Can Thank Deep-Space Asteroids for Helping Start Life on Earth

Time•Oct 1, 2024

NASA’s Webb telescope detects traces of carbon dioxide on the surface of Pluto’s largest moon

Associated Press•Oct 1, 2024

Freeze-thaw cycle helps asteroids ferry molecules of life to planets

New Scientist•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?

2054-05

If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?

15%

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When will a sample from one of the icy moons in the outer solar system be successfully returned to Earth?

Make a Prediction

When will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?

If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?

When will successful sample return missions occur for the following destinations?

Comments

When will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?

If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?

When will successful sample return missions occur for the following destinations?

When will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?

If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?

When will successful sample return missions occur for the following destinations?

When will a probe first reach an ocean within one of the icy moons of the outer solar system?

If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?

When will successful sample return missions occur for the following destinations?