Question

Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?

Resolved :Yes90%

24 comments24

Total Forecasters181

Community Prediction90% (75% - 97%)

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50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

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6.5

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3.9

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Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Jared Kushner

Steve Bannon

Mike Pence

Michael Cohen (lawyer)

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Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

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Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Judge Merchan Denying Trump Immunity Sparks MAGA Fury: 'Clear Corruption'

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Jared Kushner

Steve Bannon

Mike Pence

Michael Cohen (lawyer)

Trump Suggests Pardoning Eric Adams, Jan. 6 Rioters—Here’s Who Else He Could Pardon

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Judge Won’t Throw Out Trump’s Hush Money Conviction Because Of Immunity Ruling

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Judge Merchan Denying Trump Immunity Sparks MAGA Fury: 'Clear Corruption'

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?

Make a Prediction

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

Comments

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?