Question

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction2.56e-1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<1e-1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

5.8%

1.93e-1

2.56e-1

3.29e-1

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Genome-wide association study

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

2029-04

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Genome-wide association study

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

2029-04

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%

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How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

Make a Prediction

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

Comments

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?