🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?

Resolved :21.3k24.5k
8
Total Forecasters20
Community Prediction24.5k (13.2k - 39.5k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>100k
...
...
...
...
13.24k
24.46k
39.48k
0.8%

What was the final result?21.3k

Community Baseline Score
13.5
Community Peer Score
2.0
Authors:
JonathanShi
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Northern Hemisphere
Public health
Medicine
Influenza
Virology
Influenza pandemic
Epidemiology

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