Question

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction30% (2% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Oct 4, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2125

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

Japan's Population Faces Extinction Amid Birth Rate Crisis

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Japan is on course for 'extinction' because of its dwindling birthrate and ageing population, expert warns

Daily Mail•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

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By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

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