Question

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction30%

Make a Prediction

community: 30%

median 30.0%mean 34.9%

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

30%

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Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?