Question

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction30% (6.5% - 60%)

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50%

community: 30%

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Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

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Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Human extinction

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

Climate Change Trial at The Hague

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

As 2025’s Demographic Cliff Looms, How Far Will College Enrollment Fall?

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

The bizarre story of a rodent utopia that predicted doom for humanity

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

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Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?