Question

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction65.9% (60% - 77%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65.9%

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Oct 4, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 3000

Social Sciences

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

Japan's Population Faces Extinction Amid Birth Rate Crisis

Newsweek•Jan 21, 2025

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Japan is on course for 'extinction' because of its dwindling birthrate and ageing population, expert warns

Daily Mail•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.24k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.8B

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