Question

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction66%

Make a Prediction

community: 65.9%

median 65.9%mean 60.4%

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.14k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.9B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.14k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.9B

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Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

Make a Prediction

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

Comments

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?