Question

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction65.9% (60% - 77%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65.9%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

It's just before midnight--and I need skills

OpEdNews•Dec 19, 2024

2019 U.S. Population Estimates Continue to Show the Nation’s Growth Is Slowing

•Dec 20, 2024

Nebraska's biggest gain in three decades boosts population over 2 million mark

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.22k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.8B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

It's just before midnight--and I need skills

OpEdNews•Dec 19, 2024

2019 U.S. Population Estimates Continue to Show the Nation’s Growth Is Slowing

•Dec 20, 2024

Nebraska's biggest gain in three decades boosts population over 2 million mark

•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.22k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.8B