Question

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction65.9%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65.9%

median 65.9%mean 60.4%

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

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CNBC•Nov 11, 2024

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Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

New York state’s population could drop by 2 million people come 2050, shocking study finds

New York Post•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.19k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.9B

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Global catastrophic risk

Effects of global warming

China's push for more babies as demographic crisis deepens lacks real incentives, analysts say

CNBC•Nov 11, 2024

Why China's Birth Rate Plans Aren't Working

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

New York state’s population could drop by 2 million people come 2050, shocking study finds

New York Post•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.19k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.9B