Question

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction69% (60% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 69%

Authors:

MichaelA

Opened:

Oct 4, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 3000

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If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?

1.24k

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?

10.8B

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