Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in May 2018?

Resolved :139140
4
4
Total Forecasters51
Community Prediction140 (135 - 145)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
135.3
140.3
145.5

What was the final result?139

Community Baseline Score
54.5
Community Peer Score
17.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
IARPA Question Bot
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
2018 Leaderboard
Earthquake
US Geological Survey

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