Question

Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?

Resolved :Yes

24 comments24

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction60%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

32.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

median 60.0%mean 65.0%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Firestorm

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

British Columbia

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

8.31

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

31%

Short- and long-term effects of nuclear war

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Firestorm

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

British Columbia

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How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

8.31

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

31%