Question

Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Resolved :Annulled

19 comments19

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction50%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 50.0%mean 44.2%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26%

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

China will double its nuclear arsenal to over 1,000 warheads by 2030, according to US intelligence

FOX News•Oct 28, 2024

Conflicts of Interest: Will Israeli and American Attacks Push Iran to Make Nukes?

AntiWar•Oct 30, 2024

How Israel Could Be Changing Iran’s Nuclear Calculus

Atlantic•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26%