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Question

Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Resolved :Annulled50%
9
19
Total Forecasters118
Community Prediction50% (25% - 60%)

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50%
community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

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Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksTomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Iran
Arms Control Association
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
Federation of American Scientists

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