Question

Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Resolved :Annulled50%

19 comments19

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction50% (25% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Mar 4, 2024

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Iran

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Iranian Lawmakers Demand Nuke to Stop Trump

Breitbart•Feb 13, 2025

Iran is rearming its missile program and a ship of supplies just arrived from China, Western sources say

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

Iran building North Korean-designed nuclear missiles capable of hitting Europe

New York Post•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

25%

Comments

? comments