Question

Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?

Resolved :No25%

9 comments9

Total Forecasters88

Community Prediction25% (10% - 31%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

35.2

Community Peer Score

6.7

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Feb 16, 2024

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

North Korea

North Korea Fires Hypersonic Missile in First Weapons Test of 2025

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Kim's North Korea Fires Nuclear-Capable Missiles: Photos

Newsweek•Jan 27, 2025

North Korean leader Kim inspects nuclear facility and calls for bolstering arsenal

CNN•Jan 29, 2025

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