Question

Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?

Resolved :No25%

9 comments9

Total Forecasters88

Community Prediction25% (10% - 31%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

35.2

Community Peer Score

6.7

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

North Korea

Researcher: North Korea can produce ballistic missiles for Russia to use against Ukraine in months

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

China has 600 nukes already, and it wants to beat US missile defenses, the Pentagon says

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26.2%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

North Korea

Researcher: North Korea can produce ballistic missiles for Russia to use against Ukraine in months

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

China has 600 nukes already, and it wants to beat US missile defenses, the Pentagon says

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26.2%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?

Make a Prediction

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?