Question

Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?

Resolved :No

9 comments9

Total Forecasters88

Community Prediction25%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

35.2

Community Peer Score

6.7

median 25.0%mean 22.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

North Korea

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26.2%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

North Korea

North Korea Has Embarked on a Risky Adventure in Ukraine

Jacobin•Nov 17, 2024

North Korea may supply Putin with 100,000 soldiers for Ukraine war: report

New York Post•Nov 18, 2024

Kim Jong Un Calls for Unlimited Nuclear Weapons Expansion

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26.2%

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%