Question

Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled5%

23 comments23

Total Forecasters165

Community Prediction5% (1% - 11%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

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