Question

Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

23 comments23

Total Forecasters165

Community Prediction5%

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50%

community: 5%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 5.0%mean 9.1%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

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Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%