Question

Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?

Resolved :No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters131

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

25.5

Community Peer Score

9.2

median 1.0%mean 2.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

United States

Israel

North Korea

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

75%

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

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