Question

Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?

Resolved :No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters131

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

25.5

Community Peer Score

9.2

median 1.0%mean 2.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

United States

Israel

North Korea

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Kim Jong Un Calls for Unlimited Nuclear Weapons Expansion

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Grappling With North Korea’s Expanding Arsenal

•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

75%

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

Comments

? comments