M

Question

Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?

Resolved :No
4
12
Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
66.7
Community Peer Score
6.2
median 1.0%mean 3.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksTomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
France
Federation of American Scientists
United Kingdom
United States
Nuclear proliferation
Russia

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