Question

Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?

Resolved :No

22 comments22

Total Forecasters133

Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.1

Community Peer Score

17.8

median 4.0%mean 7.0%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Military science

China

Federation of American Scientists

Nuclear weapon

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Physics

Military science

China

Federation of American Scientists

Nuclear weapon

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Independent•Nov 11, 2024

China advances toward nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with new reactor prototype

•Nov 11, 2024

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