M

Question

Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?

Resolved :No
5
10
Total Forecasters113
Community Prediction0.4%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
69.2
Community Peer Score
11.8
median 0.4%mean 1.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksTomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Physics
Military science
Federation of American Scientists
Nuclear weapon
India

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