Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?

Resolved :No0.4%
5
10
Total Forecasters113
Community Prediction0.4% (0.1% - 1%)

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50%
community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
69.2
Community Peer Score
11.8
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlooksTomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Physics
Military science
Federation of American Scientists
Nuclear weapon
India

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