Question

Will an individual city be hit by 3 or more offensive nuclear detonations by 2024, if there's any detonation on or over a city by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

4 comments4

Total Forecasters95

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 10.0%mean 12.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

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What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

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Short- and long-term effects of nuclear war

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269