Question

Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?

Resolved :No

14 comments14

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

81.1

Community Peer Score

5.9

median 1.0%mean 2.7%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

China

India

Pakistan

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

China

India

Pakistan

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

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Lew Rockwell•Nov 15, 2024

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•Nov 18, 2024

Could Biden's Ukraine Missile Move Trigger World War III? Experts' Verdicts

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