Question

Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?

Resolved :No

14 comments14

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

81.1

Community Peer Score

5.9

median 1.0%mean 2.7%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

China

India

Pakistan

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Federation of American Scientists

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?

3.3k

Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?

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