Question

Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

Resolved :No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters153

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.4

Community Peer Score

6.7

median 0.1%mean 0.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Japan Self-Defense Forces

People's Liberation Army

China

Japan

World War II

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

15%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Japan Self-Defense Forces

People's Liberation Army

China

Japan

World War II

Japan to Join U.S. Marines in Bolstering Military Presence in Australia

Breitbart•Nov 17, 2024

Japanese troops will train with US and Australian forces as concerns over China grow

Associated Press•Nov 17, 2024

Japan’s troops to train with US, Australian forces amid concerns over China

Al Jazeera•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

15%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?

52%