Question

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction2045-04

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01

...

2034-01

2045-04

2059-04

4.7%

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Cryptography

Elliptic-curve cryptography

Information technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Federal Information Processing Standards

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Cryptography

Elliptic-curve cryptography

Information technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Federal Information Processing Standards

Where Is The Next Eclipse? Why NASA Now Has More Accurate Eclipse Maps

Forbes•Oct 3, 2024

Senators want answers from DOD on quantum sensing efforts

Defense One•Oct 4, 2024

The TechCrunch Cyber Glossary

TechCrunch•Oct 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

Make a Prediction

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

Comments

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography