Question

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction2045-04-12

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01-01

...

2034-01-08 20:12

2045-04-12 05:04

2059-04-28 08:28

4.7%

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Cryptography

Elliptic-curve cryptography

Shor's algorithm

Quantum mechanics

Information technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Federal Information Processing Standards

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08-21

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

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