Question

When will there be a new record for the best proven lower bound on the maximum possible rank of an elliptic curve?

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction2033-12-04 (2029-03-17 - 2043-10-19)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2044-12-29
community	Mar 2029	Dec 2033	Oct 2043	23.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Mar 2029	—
median	Dec 2033	—
upper 75%	Oct 2043	—
Upper bound
>2044-12-29	23.2%	—

Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Oct 21, 2021

Closes:

Dec 29, 2044

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 29, 2044

No. 2 USC has best ranking in AP Top 25 in 39 years after beating UCLA; Texas still No. 1

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The standard in golf is getting higher. That means scores should be getting lower

Associated Press•Mar 5, 2025

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When will there be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves?

2029-04-22

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?

90%

Comments

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Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Oct 21, 2021

Closes:

Dec 29, 2044

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 29, 2044

No. 2 USC has best ranking in AP Top 25 in 39 years after beating UCLA; Texas still No. 1

NBC•Mar 4, 2025

Rivals250 Release: Ten prospects under the microscope in March

NBC•Mar 4, 2025

The standard in golf is getting higher. That means scores should be getting lower

Associated Press•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will there be a new record for the best proven upper bound on the average rank of elliptic curves?

2029-04-22

Elliptic Curves, Diophantine Equations, and Cryptography

Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?

90%