Question

How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?

Resolved :33.07

20 comments20

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction3.07 (2.29 - 4.04)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2.289

3.074

4.042

What was the final result?3

Community Baseline Score

93.7

Community Peer Score

32.7

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Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI announces new o3 model — but you can’t use it yet

TechCrunch•Dec 22, 2024

Forrester’s Predictions 2024: 60% Percent of Generative AI Skeptics Will Embrace the Technology — Knowingly or Not

•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Foresight 2020

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NoUsernameSelected

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI announces new o3 model — but you can’t use it yet

TechCrunch•Dec 22, 2024

Forrester’s Predictions 2024: 60% Percent of Generative AI Skeptics Will Embrace the Technology — Knowingly or Not

•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?

Make a Prediction

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Foresight 2020

Comments

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Foresight 2020

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Foresight 2020

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Foresight 2020