Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?

Resolved :Sep 6, 20222022-12-12
6
19
Total Forecasters30
Community Prediction2022-12-12 (2022-09-26 - 2023-04-29)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2024-12-31
...
...
...
...
2022-09-26 22:33
2022-12-12 13:36
2023-04-29 04:22
6.7%

What was the final result?Sep 6, 2022

Community Baseline Score
4.2
Community Peer Score
9.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Conservative Party (UK)
United Kingdom
Parliament of the UK
Labour Party (UK)

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