Question

Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?

46 comments46

Total Forecasters327

Community Prediction20% (13% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 24, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Technology & Risks

This high school dropout has raised millions to try to do for nuclear energy what Elon Musk did for space travel

Business Insider•Feb 28, 2025

China Shoots Down Trump's Nuclear Weapons Plan

Newsweek•Feb 28, 2025

Vijay Prashad: China’s Advanced Technics & the West

Consortium News•Feb 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

2040-03-31

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

2047-03-19

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

2049-01-22

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 24, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Technology & Risks

This high school dropout has raised millions to try to do for nuclear energy what Elon Musk did for space travel

Business Insider•Feb 28, 2025

China Shoots Down Trump's Nuclear Weapons Plan

Newsweek•Feb 28, 2025

Vijay Prashad: China’s Advanced Technics & the West

Consortium News•Feb 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

2040-03-31

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

2047-03-19

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

2049-01-22