Question

Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?

46 comments46

Total Forecasters324

Community Prediction20% (12% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 24, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear fusion breakthrough: China's 'artificial sun' reactor sets a new world record by generating a steady loop of plasma for 1,066 seconds - taking the world closer towards limitless clean energy

Daily Mail•Jan 22, 2025

China’s experimental ‘artificial Sun’ passes key landmark for viability of nuclear fusion

Independent•Jan 22, 2025

Record-Breaking Science Brings Unlimited Clean Energy Closer

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

2040-10-08

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

2047-03-19

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

2049-02-10

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 24, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear fusion breakthrough: China's 'artificial sun' reactor sets a new world record by generating a steady loop of plasma for 1,066 seconds - taking the world closer towards limitless clean energy

Daily Mail•Jan 22, 2025

China’s experimental ‘artificial Sun’ passes key landmark for viability of nuclear fusion

Independent•Jan 22, 2025

Record-Breaking Science Brings Unlimited Clean Energy Closer

Newsweek•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

2040-10-08

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

2047-03-19

When will nuclear fusion provide at least 0.1% of the world's primary energy?

2049-02-10