Question

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction10% (5% - 16%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Oct 31, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

AGI Outcomes

Forecasting AI Futures

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

University of California, Berkeley

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

OpenAI launches $50M grant program to help fund academic research

TechCrunch•Mar 5, 2025

OpenAI Will Invest $50 Million In A New University Research Consortium

Forbes•Mar 5, 2025

Eric Schmidt argues against a ‘Manhattan Project for AGI’

TechCrunch•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

11%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?

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