Question

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

median 12.0%mean 15.3%

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

University of California, Berkeley

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI to launch autonomous AI agent Operator in January

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

10%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

89%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

University of California, Berkeley

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI to launch autonomous AI agent Operator in January

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

10%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

89%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?

10%