Question

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction10% (5% - 20%)

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50%

community: 10%

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Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

University of California, Berkeley

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

OpenAI announces new o3 models

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI’s Sudden Leadership Exodus Signals Doom for Non-Profit Mission: Report

•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

10%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

University of California, Berkeley

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

OpenAI announces new o3 models

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI’s Sudden Leadership Exodus Signals Doom for Non-Profit Mission: Report

•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

10%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

12%

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Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?

Make a Prediction

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

Comments

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?