Question

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction8% (5% - 18%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 8%

Authors:

MaxR

Opened:

Nov 5, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Philosophy

University of California, Berkeley

Artificial general intelligence

OpenAI

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New Scientist•Jan 29, 2025

OpenAI partners with U.S. National Laboratories on scientific research, nuclear weapons security

NBC•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

10%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

12%

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