Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?

Resolved :No4%
16
37
Total Forecasters62
Community Prediction4% (1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
21.6
Community Peer Score
5.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
EvanHarper
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
Environment & Climate
2021-2025 Leaderboard
United Nations
SAFER
Red Sea
Al Hudaydah
Yemen Oil and Gas Corporation
Mohammed Ali al-Houthi
Oil
Yemen
Houthi movement

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