Question

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters433

Community Prediction9% (5% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 9%

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

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Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Comments

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?