Question

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

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Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction62% (20% - 66%)

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50%

community: 62%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Russia

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Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

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Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

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Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Map Shows Possible WWIII Frontlines if Russia Invaded Europe

Newsweek•Dec 14, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Make a Prediction

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Comments

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?