Take Our šŸ†Quarterly CupšŸ† Survey

We're considering changes to the Quarterly Cup and want to hear from you, take our short survey to share your thoughts and help shape future iterations of the Cup.

M

Question

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

1
0
Total Forecasters26
Community Prediction62% (20% - 66%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 62%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Member states of NATO
Ukraineā€“NATO relations
United States
NATO
Russia

Comments

? comments