Question

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

no comments0

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

63%

(61% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 63%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Russia

How Is Europe Preparing for Life Without US in NATO

Newsweek•Mar 26, 2025

Could US forces in Europe face a refusal of supply and support?

Al Jazeera•Mar 25, 2025

France Can't Deploy New Air-Launched Nuclear-Tipped Missiles Before 2035

Lew Rockwell•Mar 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

13%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

NATO

Russia

How Is Europe Preparing for Life Without US in NATO

Newsweek•Mar 26, 2025

Could US forces in Europe face a refusal of supply and support?

Al Jazeera•Mar 25, 2025

France Can't Deploy New Air-Launched Nuclear-Tipped Missiles Before 2035

Lew Rockwell•Mar 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

13%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035

MetaculusM

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Make a Prediction

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Comments

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

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