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Question

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

3
2
Total Forecasters20
Community Prediction271

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
2.7%
56.6
271
874
0.6%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Technology
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion

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