📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

3
2
Total Forecasters20
Community Prediction271 (56.6 - 874)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
2.7%
56.63
270.5
873.7
0.6%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Technology
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion

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