Question

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction282 (64.1 - 902)

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weight:

	<1	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>50k
community	2.4%	64.08	281.9	902.4	1.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1	2.4%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	64.08	—
median	281.9	—
upper 75%	902.4	—
Upper bound
>50k	1.2%	—

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

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Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

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