Question

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

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Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction

282 kt

(64.1 - 902)

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CDF

	<1 kt	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>50k kt
community	2.4%	64.08 kt	281.9 kt	902.4 kt	1.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1	2.4%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	64.08 kt	—
median	281.9 kt	—
upper 75%	902.4 kt	—
Upper bound
>50k	1.2%	—

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

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