Question

How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

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Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction3.87 (1.84 - 9.48)

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

1.842

3.875

9.476

0.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

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If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

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if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

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