Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction1.82e-1

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

6.577e-2

1.818e-1

3.288e-1

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

4.27e-1

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

2.69e-2

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

2.19e-1

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

4.27e-1

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

2.69e-2

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

2.19e-1