Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction0.171

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

0.05093

0.1714

0.3197

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

0.219

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

0.219